Uncertainty

You don’t know what’s going to happen.

Not with your career. Not with your relationships. Not with the world. Not even with tomorrow.

This is not a temporary condition to be solved. This is reality. And learning to operate within it is one of the most important skills you can develop.

The certainty trap

We crave certainty. Our brains evolved in environments where quick, confident decisions meant survival. Hesitation meant death.

But modern life is different. The problems we face are complex. The future is genuinely uncertain. And yet our brains still demand answers.

This creates a trap: we manufacture false certainty because real uncertainty is unbearable.

False certainty looks like:

Believing your plan will definitely work out
Trusting predictions (economic, political, personal) as if they’re facts
Following gurus who speak with confidence
Thinking you know how others think
Assuming the future will be like the past

False certainty feels good. It’s also dangerous. It makes you fragile when reality diverges from expectations.

The cost of not tolerating uncertainty

When you can’t tolerate uncertainty, you:

Make premature decisions. You commit before you have enough information because the not-knowing is painful. You’d rather be wrong but certain than uncertain but open.

Follow confident-sounding people. Confidence and correctness aren’t correlated. Many very wrong people are very confident. But their certainty is calming, so we follow them.

Miss information. Uncertainty is uncomfortable, so you avoid information that would increase it. You don’t ask questions you don’t want answered. You seek confirmations, not challenges.

Become rigid. You pick a belief and cling to it. New evidence gets rejected if it threatens your certainty.

Suffer unnecessarily. The anxiety of “I don’t know” adds suffering on top of the actual situation. You suffer the uncertainty itself, separate from whatever outcome eventually happens.

Reframing uncertainty

What if uncertainty isn’t a problem to solve but a feature of reality to navigate?

Uncertainty means possibility. If the future were certain, you’d have no agency. It’s the uncertainty that makes your choices matter.

Uncertainty keeps you alert. When you know you don’t know, you pay attention. You stay responsive. You adapt.

Uncertainty is honest. Certainty is usually a lie we tell ourselves. Admitting uncertainty is admitting reality.

Operating under uncertainty

Hold beliefs loosely

You need beliefs to function. But hold them with open hands, ready to update when evidence demands.

“I think X is true” is different from “X is true.” “Based on current information, I believe…” is more accurate than “I know…”

This isn’t wishy-washy. It’s calibrated. Strong opinions, weakly held.

Think in probabilities

Instead of “will this work?” → “what’s the probability this works?” Instead of “is this true?” → “how confident am I this is true?”

Nothing is 0% or 100%. Everything is somewhere in between. Thinking probabilistically matches reality better than binary thinking.

Plan for multiple scenarios

If you only plan for one future, you’re fragile.

What if it goes well?
What if it goes poorly?
What’s the most likely outcome?
What are the edge cases?

Planning for multiple scenarios doesn’t mean being negative. It means being prepared.

Focus on what you can control

You can’t control outcomes. You can control actions.

You can’t control whether you get the job → you can control how you prepare
You can’t control whether the relationship works → you can control how you show up
You can’t control the market → you can control your spending

The Stoics got this right millennia ago. Direct energy toward the controllable. Accept the uncontrollable.

Build antifragility

Some things break under stress (fragile). Some survive stress (robust). Some get stronger from stress (antifragile).

In uncertain environments, aim for antifragility:

Multiple income streams rather than one salary
Diverse skills rather than narrow specialization
Many experiments rather than one big bet
Strong relationships that support you through change

Antifragile systems don’t just survive uncertainty - they benefit from it.

Make reversible bets

When uncertain, prefer decisions that can be undone.

Try the job before committing for life
Date before marrying
Rent before buying
Pilot projects before full rollouts

Reversible decisions have less downside. You can learn and adjust.

Act anyway

Uncertainty doesn’t excuse inaction. At some point, you have enough information to move.

“Analysis paralysis” is using uncertainty as an excuse. Perfect information doesn’t exist. You will always decide with incomplete data.

The question isn’t “do I know enough?” It’s “do I know enough to take the next step?”

Sitting with not knowing

Sometimes there’s nothing to do but wait. The information isn’t available. The situation is unfolding. You genuinely don’t know.

This is when the skill of tolerating uncertainty matters most.

Practices that help:

Mindfulness. Notice the feeling of uncertainty without trying to resolve it. It’s uncomfortable but not dangerous.
Naming it. “I’m feeling uncertain about X.” Naming reduces the power of feelings.
Separating components. What specifically don’t you know? What do you know? Uncertainty often shrinks when examined clearly.
Time perspective. In a year, will this uncertainty still feel significant? Often, not.

You’ve lived through not knowing before. You’re still here.

The paradox

Here’s the thing: admitting you don’t know often leads to better outcomes than pretending you do.

Because when you admit uncertainty:

You ask more questions
You consider more options
You stay alert to new information
You’re less attached to failing approaches
You’re more adaptable when things change

Certainty is comfortable but brittle. Uncertainty is uncomfortable but resilient.

The goal isn’t to eliminate uncertainty. It’s to function well within it.

Related: Decisions (choosing under uncertainty), Anxiety (the fear of not knowing), Problem-Solving (navigating unclear situations)